Best Bets Northern Trust
- August 18, 2020
- By Matt Blunt
- VegasInsider.com
Northern Trust Best Bets
Weekly PGA
Picks & Predictions
For those who missed it, please check out The Northern Trust Preview and Betting Strategies for the types of golfers you should look to target for your bets. With that in mind, here’s who I like this week at TPC Boston (with odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag). Championship Futures Justin Thomas – 12/1: It’s been a bit. THE NORTHERN TRUST 2020 Top 20 Finish Pick If Matthew Wolff takes his ball-striking form from the PGA Championship into this week, he’ll have his sights set much higher than a top-20 finish. But it’s an excellent starting point for our bets, given that he ranked inside the top-five for both SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach at TPC Harding Park.
The first week of the playoffs gets going on the PGA Tour this week, as the Top 125 players in the Fed Ex Cup points race have a tee time at TPC Boston if they wanted it. From here it's a race to get inside that Top 70 so that a tee time with one's name on it exists next week.
That's the immediate goal for everyone in this field, although winning the Northern Trust does go quite a long way in making sure a trip to Atlanta for the Tour Championship in two weeks is available as well.
TPC Boston makes it's return to hosting a playoff event after a year hiatus, and it's a course that does generally cater to the longer hitters. The 18th hole is a getable Par-5 that can provide plenty of drama late on the weekend and will probably create some big swings in scorecards this week.
Taking advantage of all three of the Par 5's this course offers is going to be key to whomever ends up on top, but keeping the ball in the short grass as much as possible on all 18 holes is going to be the overall key.
Winning scores here generally come in the -15 to -20 range, so guys better be able to avoid those big numbers if they want to find their names in contention, and scrambling around the greens to keep those strong rounds going could end up being what separates some from the back.
But as always, getting hot with the putter is something the winner will ultimately do on a track like this were numerous guys will be going low.
PGA Tour Betting Resources
2020 The Northern Trust
- Tour: PGA, FedEx Cup Playoff Odds
- Date: Thursday, Aug. 20, 2020 to Sunday, Aug. 23, 2020
- Venue: TPC Boston
- Location: Norton, Massachusetts
- Par-Yardage: 71, 7,342 yards
- TV: Golf Channel, CBS
The last time TPC Boston held a playoff event back in 2018, it was Bryson DeChambeau (+1100) who came away as the winner, his second straight playoff win at the time.
Even with two wins in the first two events of the Fed Ex Cup playoffs that year, DeChambeau failed to end up as the Tour Champion in the end, something that he still discusses from time to time today.
Given DeChambeau's recent changes to his body and game the past few months, he's become quite the polarizing figure to some, but he enters this week's event as the favorite.
The Northern Trust
Betting Odds
- Bryson DeChambeau: +1200
- Justin Thomas: +1400
- Rory McIlroy: +1400
- Jon Rahm: +1600
- Dustin Johnson: +2000
- Xander Schauffele: +2000
- Collin Morikawa: +2200
- Jason Day: +2500
- Patrick Reed: +2800
- Patrick Cantlay: +3000
- (Odds Subject to Change)
Behind him is a whole list of talented names as you would expect in a prestigious event like this, with Justin Thomas (+1300),Rory McIlroy (+1500), Jon Rahm (+1500), Jason Day (+2000), and Xander Schauffele (+2000) rounding out the guys at 20/1 odds or lower.
It's not hard to make a case for any of those guys, although McIlroy has yet to really show his best stuff since returning from the stoppage and if there was one name that may not deserve a ringing endorsement this week, it would be him.
It's one of those names that tees off this week's selections though, so let's get right to it:
Golfers to Watch - TPC Boston
Top Picks and Predictions
Contender to Back
The Northern Trust
Jon Rahm +1500
Rahm finished 4th here in his first look at this course back in 2017, and his overall length does put him in that group of guys that should have an advantage over a good chunk of the field this week in that regard.
Two Top-13 finishes – including a win – in his last three starts shows that the form is there, and if it's not going to be a Major victory (as of yet) that is Rahm's highlight in his trophy case, a Fed Ex Cup playoff event is the next best thing.
Rahm has consistently been gaining strokes on the field in basically every category over the past few weeks, while the only times he's not it's very minimal overall. He was +2.59 SG Total at the PGA Championship a couple of weeks back, and if it weren't for a putter that couldn't find the range, he might have that first Major win already.
But as I mentioned earlier, there are strong cases to be made for all the names at the top, but Rahm is the name for me this week in that range.
Mid-Range Value
The Northern Trust
Tyrrell Hatton +5500
Hatton has done some phenomenal work in just eight official PGA starts this year, including one win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
He' s a name that I not only like this week, but one as a longer shot to win that $15 million prize a few weeks from now, and a victory this week would go a long way in obtaining that prize.
Nearly all aspects of Hatton's game have been working quite well since the restart, although an abnormally bad putting week for him at the PGA Championship made it a short week for the Englishman. It's the accuracy and approach game that will determine whether or not Hatton becomes a contender on the weekend, and a 12th place finish at this venue back in 2018 suggests to me that he'll find a way to bring his best stuff this week.
Mid-Range Value #2
The Northern Trust
Viktor Hovland +5500
Not looking to go searching for diamonds in the rough way down the odds board this week – although if I were forced to, Brendon Todd (+11000) and Emiliano Grillo (+17500) would be the names I'd consider. But it's Hovland at the same price point as Hatton that I've settled on simply because his accuracy and ball striking is quickly approaching the “second to none” category on the PGA Tour these days.
This will be Hovland's maiden voyage at TPC Boston so I do wish the price was a little higher with that being the case, but with a win on Tour already this season and the phenomenal success off his young colleagues like Morikawa, Wolff and others likely have made the oddsmakers somewhat guarded in pricing these guys now.
All this young Norwegian does is stripe the ball though and if you give yourself enough quality birdie looks at this track, there is a good chance the majority of them will start to fall.
Putting is the weak link in Hovland's game right now, so that is always going to be a concern, but he did find a way to gain 1.2 strokes on the field with the flatstick at the PGA Championship while the rest of his game wasn't up to his usual standard.
If he's able to put it all together this week, I do think he'll be there in contention late.
Props to Watch - TPC Boston
72 Hole Matchup to Take
The Northern Trust
72 Hole Matchup: Jason Day (-106) over Collin Morikawa
This is nothing more than a situational play for me here as after the entire golf betting market had Morikawa to win the PGA, everyone, including Morikawa himself took it easy last week to bask in his glory.
But even with a week off, fading a young 23-year old golfer off a monumental win for his career is always something to keep in the back of your mind, especially when he – like Hovland unfortunately – is making his maiden voyage at this golf course.
Compare that to the nine straight years Jason Day has teed it up here from 2010-18, where Day has one missed cut (2018) and six Top-15 finishes on his resume. You've also got an outright situation where Day is five points better for the outright win (+2000) compared to Morikawa's +2500, and yet Morikawa is the favorite in the head-to-head tilt?
Off the highest of highs for one of the future faces of the Tour, I just don't see that making sense for Morikawa this week, and I'll take the grizzled vet in Day this week.
Best Bets For The Northern Trust
Top Former Oklahoma State Player
The Northern Trust
Viktor Hovland +250
Easy prop to get on board with here considering Hovland's an outright selection as well, as the young Norwegian is actually the favorite at that price just ahead of his former teammate Matthew Wolff (+300).
The fact that Rickie Fowler is behind both of them at +350 tells you where the state of Rickie's inconsistent game currently is, and even though Fowler does have the experience edge over those two at TPC Boston, and did win here in 2015, the fact that Fowler's got four missed cuts and three Top 22 finishes in his last seven starts suggests that he just can't find any consistency in his game right now and clearly the oddmakers agree.
How to Bet on Golf
Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.
Sportsbooks ensure that there are no shortage of wagering options on golf tournaments every week, and it isn't all about picking the winner. Grabbing the outright winner of a golf tournament is the best way to get that 'big score' but it's also the hardest wager to cash. After all, a typical professional golf tournament has a field of 140+ different players to consider.
Understanding Golf Odds and Bets
Most golf odds are listed in the fractional format – 10/1 on Dustin Johnson for example – and in that particular case you would multiply the amount bet by that first number to project your winnings. So a $100 bet on DJ to win that particular event would win you $1000.
If you are more comfortable with the American version of odds listings that you typically see across the other major North American sports – ie +1000 – these numbers are easily convertible. Online and app based books may already have that option built in, but the easiest way to do it yourself is to add two zeros to the first number in the fraction. So a 10/1 price on DJ converts to +1000 in that format.